Location, Location, Location: The Misprediction of Satisfaction in Housing Lotteries

What the study found

Students overestimated how much their house assignment would affect their happiness (the impact bias). When predicting, they weighted physical features of the houses far more than social features, although when asked directly they said social features matter more. A second study traced this partly to an isolation effect: people focus on features that differ between options.

Limitations

Student dormitories, not chosen homes. The abstract does not report which features predicted reported happiness after the move; sample sizes not extracted.

Neurodesign interpretation

A caution for any claim that room features dominate wellbeing. People's attention to physical differences at the moment of choice does not show those differences matter most once they live there.

Possible design implications

Hypothesis: people choosing a home may overweight physical features that differ between options, relative to what later shapes their experience.

Study design

Quasi-experiment using a housing lottery, plus a follow-up study

Population

Undergraduates randomly assigned to residential houses, USA. Sample: not extracted.

Setting

University student housing

Field

Environmental psychology, Housing

Mechanism

Affective forecasting

Spatial variable

Physical features of a residence

Keywords

housing, affective forecasting, impact bias, physical features, social features

Notes and follow-up

Related records: ND-0147, ND-0149.